Oregon Primary Elections: All Incumbents Safe

Oregon Bucks the National Trend as Anti-Incumbent Sentiments Run Low

Directly contrary to national trends, Oregon primary voters elected a slate of candidates – all incumbents – in what appeared to be a status quo election on Tuesday night. Democrats nominated a previously elected Governor, John Kitzhaber, by a wide margin while Republican voters in Eastern Oregon re-nominated both Greg Smith and Bob Jenson, two GOP House members who violated party orthodoxy by voting for Measures 66 and 67.

Oregon's race for Governor will be the much-anticipated match-up between Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican Chris Dudley. Kitzhaber won a decisive victory over teacher's union-endorsed Bill Bradbury, 66% to 30%. Dudley, on the other hand, won a much tougher victory in a 9-way GOP primary by outlasting his toughest rival, high-tech entrepreneur Allen Alley by a slim 37% to 32% margin. Both Kitzhaber and Dudley will give Oregonians compelling reasons to vote in November. Kitzhaber governed Oregon previously in a time of high prosperity for the state, while Dudley brings a fresh, "outsider" approach and a commanding presence. Both candidates have ample charisma and ability to fundraise.

Oregon will likely be home to one of the most hotly-contested races for Congress this year as Republican Scott Bruun won the right to square off against incumbent Congressman Kurt Schrader (D-Oregon City) for Oregon's 5th Congressional District. Bruun, a current state legislator, is considered a formidable opponent for Schrader. For many in the business community, the race pits two friends against each other. Both Schrader and Bruun have been helpful to Oregon business while in the state legislature. Both are considered independent moderates, although Schrader is facing criticism for his adherence to the Democratic leadership's legislative platform, including health care, in Washington, DC.

Only the race for Schools Superintendent offered Oregonians any intrigue on election night. As of now, State Representative Ron Maurer (R-Grants Pass) and incumbent Susan Castillo are separated by only 5,000 votes, with Castillo in the lead. Castillo, whose tenure has largely been criticized for under-performance, has benefitted greatly from her ties with the teacher's union. Maurer had plenty of issues to campaign on, but had to overcome his relative obscurity as a rural state legislator and a lack of cash to run a statewide campaign.

All the familiar faces of the Oregon Legislature will be running for election in November as every incumbent won re-nomination from their party's voters. But it wasn't without difficulty for some. Representative Bob Jenson (R-Pendleton) narrowly escaped an upset from challenger Mike Mathisen, winning by just over 200 votes. Mathisen hammered Jenson for his votes in favor of higher taxes. The other House Republican thought to be in trouble, Representative Greg Smith (R-Heppner), won 62% to 38% over his anti-tax challenger Colleen MacLeod. On the Democratic side, Senator Rod Monroe (D-Portland) survived a 3-way primary race for his Senate seat, although he won less than 50% of the vote in his district.

AOI-Endorsed Candidates and Legislators fared well on Tuesday night. AOI endorsed and was a leading financial supporter for House District 55 candidate Mike McLane (R-Powell Butte) in his competitive GOP primary race against Prineville Mayor Mike Wendel. McLane won with over 70% of the vote. AOI also supported Rep. Sherrie Sprenger (R-Scio) as she overcame a primary challenge in her rural Willamette Valley district with over 60% of the vote. Sprenger has earned a reliable pro-business reputation with AOI members.

One of the storylines of this election cycle will be the impressive slate of candidates put up by the parties in 2010. This storyline was dominated by outstanding Democrat candidates in recent elections, but 2010 has seen a resurgence of exceptional GOP candidates, most notably in the House of Representatives. In the House, Republicans will look to take back key House seats with Jason Conger (Bend business attorney), Mark Johnson (Hood River building contractor and school board chair), and Shawn Lindsay (Portland business attorney). Democrats will look to attorney Will Rasmussen to pick up a key West Linn seat being vacated by Rep. Scott Bruun.

On the Senate side, Republicans are placing their hopes on Hood River orchardist and county commissioner Chuck Thomsen to win the District 26 seat being vacated by Democratic Senator Rick Metsger. In a key southern Oregon senate district, Marine Colonel Dave Dotterrer (R-Ashland) is challenging the incumbent state Senator Alan Bates (D-Ashland).